We see some mixed signals in the national stats this month. Once we do seasonal adjustments April Sales were up 2.9% compared to last month. But we are down 3.5% compared to this time last year.

Inventory is up 8.8% compared to last month. I am not too worried about that since inventory usually goes up as we move into the summer (and we didn’t do seasonal adjustments for the inventory numbers). The good news is that inventory is down 12.8% compared to this time last year. As any seasoned real estate investor will tell you we need inventory numbers to go down before we can start seeing a true recovery. So the drop in inventory numbers is a good sign.

Yr Month Seasonally Adjusted Sales (Annual) Sales (Non Adjusted) Inventory Months of Inventory
2008 Apr 4,850,000 434,000 4,549,000 11.3
2008 May 4,950,000 483,000 4,482,000 10.9
2008 Jun 4,900,000 504,000 4,495,000 11.0
2008 Jul 4,990,000 504,000 4,575,000 11.0
2008 Aug 4,930,000 489,000 4,335,000 10.6
2008 Sept 5,100,000 438,000 4,272,000 10.1
2008 Oct 4,940,000 413,000 4,198,000 10.2
2008 Nov 4,540,000 322,000 4,163,000 11.0
2008 Dec 4,740,000 361,000 3,700,000 9.4
2009 Jan 4,490,000 257,000 3,611,000 9.7
2009 Feb 4,710,000 280,000 3,798,000 9.7
2009 Mar 4,550,000 357,000 3,648,000 9.6
2009 Apr 4,680,000 414,000 3,968,000 10.2
vs. last month: 2.9% 16.0% 8.8% 6.3%
vs. last year: -3.5% -4.6% -12.8% -9.7%

The months of inventory is down 9.7 percent compared to last year. The big number to watch over the next few months will be interest rates. If interest rates can stay below 6 or 6.5 percent we could continue to see a recovery. We could run into problems though if rates move up past 6.5 percent. If buyers are thinking of buying in the next 6 months it might be a good time to start looking now while rates are still low.